Kitzbühel 4–1 Langenegg: Result & Stats

Kitzbühel

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Langenegg

6/1/2019

Regionalliga - West · Round 29Sportplatz Langau (Kitzbühel)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kitzbühel59%

×Draw20%

Langenegg21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitzbühelExpected goals in this matchLangenegg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.30

Kitzbühel

2.29

Langenegg

1.30

Kitzbühel creates 76% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 24 away

1.55

creates per match

1.46

1.14

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Kitzbühel

1.55

Langenegg

1.46

allows per match

Kitzbühel

1.14

Langenegg

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Langenegg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitzbühel ↓

Langenegg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Kitzbühel or draw

79%

Kitzbühel or Langenegg

80%

Draw or Langenegg

41%

Winning margin

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

37%

Langenegg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

90%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

66%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

40%

Langenegg 1+ goals

73%

Langenegg 2+ goals

37%

Langenegg 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

74%

Langenegg (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitzbühel at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 49 matches

Langenegg away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitzbühel attack 1.55 + Langenegg defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.29

Langenegg attack 1.46 + Kitzbühel defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kitzbühel scores more

59%

level

20%

Langenegg scores more

21%

Kitzbühel at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff