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Kitchee vs SHANGHAI SIPG — AFC Champions League 2018

Kitchee
Kitchee
CANC
11:00
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
4/25/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kitchee38%
×Draw27%
SHANGHAI SIPG35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
1.29
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kitchee
0.91
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.05

allows per match

Kitchee
1.36
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.67

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
65%
Kitchee or SHANGHAI SIPG
73%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
62%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
17%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
72%
Kitchee 2+ goals
37%
Kitchee 3+ goals
14%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
70%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
34%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
53%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 0.91 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.05 + Kitchee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kitchee scores more
38%
level
27%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
35%

Kitchee at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kitchee vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Match Preview

Kitchee face SHANGHAI SIPG on April 25, 2022 in this AFC Champions League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kitchee host SHANGHAI SIPG at Khao Kradong Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.