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Kitchee vs North District — League #380 2026

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
North District
North District
4/5/2025League #380League #380 · Round 21Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kitchee65%
×Draw16%
North District19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
3.20
North District
1.72

Kitchee creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kitchee
3.89
North District
2.00

allows per match

Kitchee
1.44
North District
2.50

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
North District+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

North District →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
81%
Kitchee or North District
84%
Draw or North District
35%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
46%
North District wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
96%
Kitchee 2+ goals
82%
Kitchee 3+ goals
60%
North District 1+ goals
82%
North District 2+ goals
51%
North District 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
78%
North District (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 3.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

North District away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 3.89 + North District defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.20

North District attack 2.00 + Kitchee defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kitchee scores more
65%
level
16%
North District scores more
19%

Kitchee at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitchee vs North District

North District beat Kitchee 2-1 in League #380 on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.