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Kitchee vs Kowloon City — League #380 2026

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kowloon City
Kowloon City
3/14/2026League #380League #380

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kitchee73%
×Draw15%
Kowloon City12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
2.88
Kowloon City
1.13

Kitchee creates 155% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kitchee
3.50
Kowloon City
0.50

allows per match

Kitchee
1.75
Kowloon City
2.25

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Kowloon City+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Kowloon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
88%
Kitchee or Kowloon City
85%
Draw or Kowloon City
27%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
52%
Kowloon City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
94%
Kitchee 2+ goals
78%
Kitchee 3+ goals
54%
Kowloon City 1+ goals
68%
Kowloon City 2+ goals
31%
Kowloon City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
85%
Kowloon City (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 3.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Kowloon City away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 3.50 + Kowloon City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.88

Kowloon City attack 0.50 + Kitchee defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Kitchee scores more
73%
level
15%
Kowloon City scores more
12%

Kitchee at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #380: Kitchee 4–0 Kowloon City

Kitchee beat Kowloon City 4-0 in League #380 on March 14, 2026.