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Kitchee vs Kashiwa Reysol — AFC Champions League 2018

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kashiwa Reysol
Kashiwa Reysol
3/14/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Hong Kong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kitchee44%
×Draw24%
Kashiwa Reysol32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
1.62
Kashiwa Reysol
1.35

Kitchee creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kitchee
0.91
Kashiwa Reysol
1.33

allows per match

Kitchee
1.36
Kashiwa Reysol
2.33

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Kashiwa Reysol+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Kashiwa Reysol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
68%
Kitchee or Kashiwa Reysol
76%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol
56%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
22%
Kashiwa Reysol wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
80%
Kitchee 2+ goals
48%
Kitchee 3+ goals
22%
Kashiwa Reysol 1+ goals
74%
Kashiwa Reysol 2+ goals
39%
Kashiwa Reysol 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
58%
Kashiwa Reysol (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Kashiwa Reysol away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 0.91 + Kashiwa Reysol defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kashiwa Reysol attack 1.33 + Kitchee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kitchee scores more
44%
level
24%
Kashiwa Reysol scores more
32%

Kitchee at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitchee vs Kashiwa Reysol

Kitchee beat Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 in AFC Champions League on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Hong Kong Stadium in Hong Kong.