Kitchee 0–6 Jeonbuk Motors: Result & Stats

Kitchee

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 5

Jeonbuk Motors

2/20/2018

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Hong Kong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kitchee27%

×Draw25%

Jeonbuk Motors48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitcheeExpected goals in this matchJeonbuk Motors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.56

Kitchee

1.11

Jeonbuk Motors

1.56

Jeonbuk Motors creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

0.91

creates per match

1.77

1.36

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kitchee

0.91

Jeonbuk Motors

1.77

allows per match

Kitchee

1.36

Jeonbuk Motors

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par

Jeonbuk Motors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Jeonbuk Motors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw

52%

Kitchee or Jeonbuk Motors

75%

Draw or Jeonbuk Motors

73%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+

10%

Jeonbuk Motors wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals

67%

Kitchee 2+ goals

30%

Kitchee 3+ goals

10%

Jeonbuk Motors 1+ goals

79%

Jeonbuk Motors 2+ goals

46%

Jeonbuk Motors 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)

36%

Jeonbuk Motors (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Jeonbuk Motors away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 0.91 + Jeonbuk Motors defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.77 + Kitchee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kitchee scores more

27%

level

25%

Jeonbuk Motors scores more

48%

Jeonbuk Motors at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Jeonbuk Motors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff