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Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC — League #380 2026

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hong Kong FC
Hong Kong FC
4/26/2025League #380League #380 · Round 23Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kitchee70%
×Draw15%
Hong Kong FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
3.15
Hong Kong FC
1.42

Kitchee creates 122% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kitchee
3.89
Hong Kong FC
1.40

allows per match

Kitchee
1.44
Hong Kong FC
2.40

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Hong Kong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Hong Kong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
85%
Kitchee or Hong Kong FC
85%
Draw or Hong Kong FC
30%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
51%
Hong Kong FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
96%
Kitchee 2+ goals
81%
Kitchee 3+ goals
59%
Hong Kong FC 1+ goals
76%
Hong Kong FC 2+ goals
41%
Hong Kong FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
83%
Hong Kong FC (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 3.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Hong Kong FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 3.89 + Hong Kong FC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 3.15

Hong Kong FC attack 1.40 + Kitchee defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kitchee scores more
70%
level
15%
Hong Kong FC scores more
15%

Kitchee at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #380: Kitchee 3–1 Hong Kong FC

Kitchee beat Hong Kong FC 3-1 in League #380 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.