Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kitchee vs Eastern — FA Cup 2020

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Eastern
Easternadvanced
5/12/2024FA CupFA Cup · Semi-finalsMong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kitchee21%
×Draw20%
Eastern59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
1.27
Eastern
2.23

Eastern creates 76% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kitchee
1.75
Eastern
3.20

allows per match

Kitchee
1.25
Eastern
0.80

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Eastern+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Eastern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
41%
Kitchee or Eastern
80%
Draw or Eastern
79%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
8%
Eastern wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
72%
Kitchee 2+ goals
36%
Kitchee 3+ goals
14%
Eastern 1+ goals
89%
Eastern 2+ goals
65%
Eastern 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
26%
Eastern (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Eastern away — creates 3.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 1.75 + Eastern defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eastern attack 3.20 + Kitchee defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kitchee scores more
21%
level
20%
Eastern scores more
59%

Eastern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Eastern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitchee vs Eastern

Eastern beat Kitchee 2-1 in FA Cup on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.