Kitchee 1–0 Chiangrai United: Result & Stats

Kitchee

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chiangrai United

4/16/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Khao Kradong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kitchee47%

×Draw26%

Chiangrai United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitcheeExpected goals in this matchChiangrai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.02

Kitchee

1.46

Chiangrai United

1.02

Kitchee creates 43% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

0.91

creates per match

0.67

1.36

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Kitchee

0.91

Chiangrai United

0.67

allows per match

Kitchee

1.36

Chiangrai United

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Chiangrai United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw

74%

Kitchee or Chiangrai United

74%

Draw or Chiangrai United

53%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+

23%

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals

77%

Kitchee 2+ goals

43%

Kitchee 3+ goals

18%

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

64%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

27%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)

64%

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 0.91 + Chiangrai United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chiangrai United attack 0.67 + Kitchee defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kitchee scores more

47%

level

26%

Chiangrai United scores more

26%

Kitchee at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff