Kitakyushu 0–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Kitakyushu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

D. Watari 90+3'

9/11/2016

J2 League · Round 31Honjō Athletic Stadium (Kitakyushu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kitakyushu31%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitakyushuExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.23

Kitakyushu

1.05

Tokushima Vortis

1.23

Tokushima Vortis creates 17% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 149 away

1.09

creates per match

1.19

1.26

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Kitakyushu

1.09

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Kitakyushu

1.26

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitakyushu+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitakyushu ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kitakyushu or draw

60%

Kitakyushu or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

69%

Winning margin

Kitakyushu wins by 2+

12%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Kitakyushu 1+ goals

65%

Kitakyushu 2+ goals

28%

Kitakyushu 3+ goals

9%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

71%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

35%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kitakyushu (draw refunded)

44%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitakyushu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitakyushu attack 1.09 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Kitakyushu defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kitakyushu scores more

31%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

40%

Tokushima Vortis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

60'

Y. Naito← M. Motoyama

60'

D. Watari← J. Osaki

70'

R. Yamasaki← A. Sato

80'

Rodrigo Paraná← K. Hara

83'

Kyung-Jung Kim← Y. Kimura

89'

K. Kotani← S. Inoue

90+3'

D. Watari

Kitakyushu

Tokushima

31

2

5

4

19

22

7

▼

Kimura

6

Paraiba

8

Iwao

10

▼

Osaki

18

▼

1

3

6

28

43

▼

19

10

7

11

▼

Inoue

24

Arai

9

▼

Hara

Manager: K. Hashiratani

60'▲Y. Naito←▼M. Motoyama

80'▲Rodrigo Paraná←▼K. Hara

89'▲K. Kotani←▼S. Inoue

Kitakyushu substitutes

18Naito22Paraná29Kotani2Ishigami17Kato21Suzuki23Teraoka

Manager: H. Nagashima

60'▲D. Watari←▼J. Osaki

70'▲R. Yamasaki←▼A. Sato

83'▲Kyung-Jung Kim←▼Y. Kimura

Tokushima Vortis substitutes

16Watari17Yamasaki11Kim1Aizawa13Sasaki25Tomita28Izawa