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Kitakyushu vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Kitakyushu
Kitakyushu
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
7/25/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 7Mikuni World Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Kitakyushu41%
×Draw27%
Renofa Yamaguchi32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitakyushu
1.31
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.13

Kitakyushu creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 168 away

creates per match

Kitakyushu
1.11
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Kitakyushu
1.27
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Kitakyushu+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitakyushu ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kitakyushu or draw
68%
Kitakyushu or Renofa Yamaguchi
73%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
59%

Winning margin

Kitakyushu wins by 2+
18%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kitakyushu 1+ goals
73%
Kitakyushu 2+ goals
38%
Kitakyushu 3+ goals
14%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
68%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
31%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kitakyushu (draw refunded)
56%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitakyushu at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitakyushu attack 1.11 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Kitakyushu defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kitakyushu scores more
41%
level
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
32%

Kitakyushu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kitakyushu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitakyushu vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Kitakyushu beat Renofa Yamaguchi 2-0 in J2 League on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Mikuni World Stadium in Kitakyushu.