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Kisvárda II vs Hidasnémeti — NB III - Northeast 2019

Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
FT
2 – 4
Hidasnémeti
Hidasnémeti
H. Laszlo 18'
T. Rubus 7'
D. A. Toth 65'
G. Menougong 36'
L. Varjas 12', 4'
9/1/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 5Várkert Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kisvárda II67%
×Draw18%
Hidasnémeti15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisvárda II
2.50
Hidasnémeti
1.10

Kisvárda II creates 127% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kisvárda II
1.79
Hidasnémeti
1.16

allows per match

Kisvárda II
1.05
Hidasnémeti
3.21

finishing

Kisvárda II+0.00on par
Hidasnémeti+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvárda II ↓

Hidasnémeti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kisvárda II or draw
85%
Kisvárda II or Hidasnémeti
82%
Draw or Hidasnémeti
33%

Winning margin

Kisvárda II wins by 2+
45%
Hidasnémeti wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kisvárda II 1+ goals
92%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
71%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
45%
Hidasnémeti 1+ goals
67%
Hidasnémeti 2+ goals
30%
Hidasnémeti 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
82%
Hidasnémeti (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvárda II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Hidasnémeti away — creates 1.16, concedes 3.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvárda II attack 1.79 + Hidasnémeti defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hidasnémeti attack 1.16 + Kisvárda II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Kisvárda II scores more
67%
level
18%
Hidasnémeti scores more
15%

Kisvárda II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
L. Varjas
7'
T. Rubus
11'
12'
L. Varjas
18'
H. Laszlo
36'
G. Menougong
65'
D. A. Toth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisvárda II vs Hidasnémeti

Hidasnémeti beat Kisvárda II 4-2 in NB III - Northeast on September 1, 2021.

Goals: L. Varjas (4', 12'), T. Rubus (7'), H. Laszlo (18'), G. Menougong (36'), D. A. Toth (65').

The match was played at Várkert Sportpálya in Kisvárda.