Kisvárda II 1–0 Füzesgyarmati: Result & Stats

Kisvárda II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Füzesgyarmati

3/19/2023

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 26Várkerti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kisvárda II50%

×Draw24%

Füzesgyarmati26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisvárda IIExpected goals in this matchFüzesgyarmati

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.15

Kisvárda II

1.71

Füzesgyarmati

1.15

Kisvárda II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 67 away

1.79

creates per match

1.24

1.05

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Kisvárda II

1.79

Füzesgyarmati

1.24

allows per match

Kisvárda II

1.05

Füzesgyarmati

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvárda II ↓

Füzesgyarmati →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kisvárda II or draw

74%

Kisvárda II or Füzesgyarmati

76%

Draw or Füzesgyarmati

50%

Winning margin

Kisvárda II wins by 2+

27%

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kisvárda II 1+ goals

82%

Kisvárda II 2+ goals

51%

Kisvárda II 3+ goals

24%

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

68%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

32%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)

66%

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvárda II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvárda II attack 1.79 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.71

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Kisvárda II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kisvárda II scores more

50%

level

24%

Füzesgyarmati scores more

26%

Kisvárda II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff