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Kisvarda FC vs Tiszakecske FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC
FT
1 – 0
Tiszakecske FC
Tiszakecske FC
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Várkert Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kisvarda FC56%
×Draw24%
Tiszakecske FC20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisvarda FC
1.75
Tiszakecske FC
0.94

Kisvarda FC creates 86% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kisvarda FC
1.50
Tiszakecske FC
1.38

allows per match

Kisvarda FC
0.50
Tiszakecske FC
2.00

finishing

Kisvarda FC+0.00on par
Tiszakecske FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvarda FC ↓

Tiszakecske FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kisvarda FC or draw
80%
Kisvarda FC or Tiszakecske FC
76%
Draw or Tiszakecske FC
44%

Winning margin

Kisvarda FC wins by 2+
32%
Tiszakecske FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kisvarda FC 1+ goals
83%
Kisvarda FC 2+ goals
52%
Kisvarda FC 3+ goals
25%
Tiszakecske FC 1+ goals
61%
Tiszakecske FC 2+ goals
24%
Tiszakecske FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kisvarda FC (draw refunded)
74%
Tiszakecske FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvarda FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 12 matches

Tiszakecske FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvarda FC attack 1.50 + Tiszakecske FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tiszakecske FC attack 1.38 + Kisvarda FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Kisvarda FC scores more
56%
level
24%
Tiszakecske FC scores more
20%

Kisvarda FC at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kisvarda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Kisvarda FC 1–0 Tiszakecske FC

Kisvarda FC beat Tiszakecske FC 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Várkert Sportpálya in Kisvárda.