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Kisumu All Stars vs Rainbow — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rainbow
Rainbow
1/7/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kisumu All Stars50%
×Draw27%
Rainbow23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.40
Rainbow
0.85

Kisumu All Stars creates 65% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.39
Rainbow
0.89

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.82
Rainbow
1.42

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Rainbow+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Rainbow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
77%
Kisumu All Stars or Rainbow
73%
Draw or Rainbow
50%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
24%
Rainbow wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
75%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
41%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
17%
Rainbow 1+ goals
57%
Rainbow 2+ goals
21%
Rainbow 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Rainbow (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Rainbow away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Rainbow defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rainbow attack 0.89 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
50%
level
27%
Rainbow scores more
23%

Kisumu All Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisumu All Stars vs Rainbow

Rainbow beat Kisumu All Stars 2-0 in Super League on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.