Kisumu All Stars 0–0 Green Commandos

Kisumu All Stars

FT

0 – 0

Green Commandos

5/26/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 19

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kisumu All Stars57%

×Draw25%

Green Commandos18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchGreen Commandos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.79

Kisumu All Stars

1.61

Green Commandos

0.79

Kisumu All Stars creates 104% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 16 away

1.41

creates per match

0.75

0.83

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.41

Green Commandos

0.75

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.83

Green Commandos

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Green Commandos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Green Commandos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

82%

Kisumu All Stars or Green Commandos

75%

Draw or Green Commandos

43%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

31%

Green Commandos wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

80%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

48%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

22%

Green Commandos 1+ goals

55%

Green Commandos 2+ goals

19%

Green Commandos 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

76%

Green Commandos (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 106 matches

Green Commandos away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.41 + Green Commandos defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.61

Green Commandos attack 0.75 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

57%

level

25%

Green Commandos scores more

18%

Kisumu All Stars at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff