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Kisumu All Stars vs GFE 105 — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
2 – 1
GFE 105
GFE 105
2/24/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kisumu All Stars62%
×Draw24%
GFE 10514%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.67
GFE 105
0.65

Kisumu All Stars creates 157% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.41
GFE 105
0.47

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.83
GFE 105
1.94

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
GFE 105+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

GFE 105 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
86%
Kisumu All Stars or GFE 105
76%
Draw or GFE 105
38%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
35%
GFE 105 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
81%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
50%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
23%
GFE 105 1+ goals
48%
GFE 105 2+ goals
14%
GFE 105 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
81%
GFE 105 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 106 matches

GFE 105 away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.41 + GFE 105 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.67

GFE 105 attack 0.47 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
62%
level
24%
GFE 105 scores more
14%

Kisumu All Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kisumu All Stars 2–1 GFE 105

Kisumu All Stars beat GFE 105 2-1 in Super League on February 24, 2018.