Kisumu All Stars 1–1 Darajani Gogo: Result & Stats

Kisumu All Stars

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Darajani Gogo

1/25/2025

Super League · Round 17Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kisumu All Stars49%

×Draw28%

Darajani Gogo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchDarajani Gogo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.82

Kisumu All Stars

1.33

Darajani Gogo

0.82

Kisumu All Stars creates 62% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 72 away

1.39

creates per match

0.82

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.39

Darajani Gogo

0.82

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.82

Darajani Gogo

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Darajani Gogo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

77%

Kisumu All Stars or Darajani Gogo

72%

Draw or Darajani Gogo

51%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

23%

Darajani Gogo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

74%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

38%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

15%

Darajani Gogo 1+ goals

56%

Darajani Gogo 2+ goals

20%

Darajani Gogo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

68%

Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

49%

level

28%

Darajani Gogo scores more

23%

Kisumu All Stars at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff