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Kisumu All Stars vs Coast Stima — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
1 – 1
Coast Stima
Coast Stima
6/30/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kisumu All Stars51%
×Draw27%
Coast Stima21%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.40
Coast Stima
0.80

Kisumu All Stars creates 75% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.41
Coast Stima
0.78

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.83
Coast Stima
1.39

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Coast Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Coast Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
79%
Kisumu All Stars or Coast Stima
73%
Draw or Coast Stima
49%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
25%
Coast Stima wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
75%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
41%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
17%
Coast Stima 1+ goals
55%
Coast Stima 2+ goals
19%
Coast Stima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
70%
Coast Stima (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.83 · 106 matches

Coast Stima away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.41 + Coast Stima defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Coast Stima attack 0.78 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
51%
level
27%
Coast Stima scores more
21%

Kisumu All Stars at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kisumu All Stars 1–1 Coast Stima

Kisumu All Stars and Coast Stima drew 1-1 in Super League on June 30, 2018.