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Kisumu All Stars vs Administration Police Fc — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
1 – 0
Administration Police Fc
Administration Police Fc
3/29/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kisumu All Stars52%
×Draw26%
Administration Police Fc22%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.53
Administration Police Fc
0.91

Kisumu All Stars creates 68% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 18 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.39
Administration Police Fc
1.00

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.82
Administration Police Fc
1.67

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Administration Police Fc+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Administration Police Fc →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
78%
Kisumu All Stars or Administration Police Fc
74%
Draw or Administration Police Fc
48%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
27%
Administration Police Fc wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
78%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
45%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
20%
Administration Police Fc 1+ goals
60%
Administration Police Fc 2+ goals
23%
Administration Police Fc 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
70%
Administration Police Fc (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Administration Police Fc away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Administration Police Fc defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Administration Police Fc attack 1.00 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
52%
level
26%
Administration Police Fc scores more
22%

Kisumu All Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kisumu All Stars 1–0 Administration Police Fc

Kisumu All Stars beat Administration Police Fc 1-0 in Super League on March 29, 2018.