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Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz vs Red Black Egalité — Cup 2020

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
AET
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Red Black Egalité
Red Black Egalité
9/7/2024CupCup · 1st RoundTerrain Pintsch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz2%
×Draw4%
Red Black Egalité94%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
1.13
Red Black Egalité
6.13

Red Black Egalité creates 442% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
1.25
Red Black Egalité
5.00

allows per match

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz
7.25
Red Black Egalité
1.00

finishing

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz+0.00on par
Red Black Egalité+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz ↓

Red Black Egalité →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–35%
0–47%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–23%
1–35%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–21%
2–33%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 46% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
88%12%4.5
74%26%

Double chance

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz or draw
6%
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz or Red Black Egalité
96%
Draw or Red Black Egalité
98%

Winning margin

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz wins by 2+
1%
Red Black Egalité wins by 2+
85%

Team goals

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz 1+ goals
68%
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz 2+ goals
31%
Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz 3+ goals
11%
Red Black Egalité 1+ goals
100%
Red Black Egalité 2+ goals
97%
Red Black Egalité 3+ goals
90%

Draw no bet

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz (draw refunded)
2%
Red Black Egalité (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz at home — creates 1.25, concedes 7.25 · 4 matches

Red Black Egalité away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz attack 1.25 + Red Black Egalité defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Red Black Egalité attack 5.00 + Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz defence 7.25 → ÷2 → 6.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz scores more
2%
level
4%
Red Black Egalité scores more
94%

Red Black Egalité at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Red Black Egalité will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz vs Red Black Egalité

Red Black Egalité beat Kischpelt Wilwerwiltz 5-3 in Cup on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Pintsch in Pintsch.