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Kiruna FF vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Kiruna FF
Kiruna FF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Umea FF
Umea FF
6/10/2023Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 11Lombia IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kiruna FF22%
×Draw23%
Umea FF55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiruna FF
1.06
Umea FF
1.82

Umea FF creates 72% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 46 away

creates per match

Kiruna FF
1.29
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Kiruna FF
1.56
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Kiruna FF+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiruna FF ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kiruna FF or draw
45%
Kiruna FF or Umea FF
77%
Draw or Umea FF
78%

Winning margin

Kiruna FF wins by 2+
8%
Umea FF wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Kiruna FF 1+ goals
65%
Kiruna FF 2+ goals
29%
Kiruna FF 3+ goals
9%
Umea FF 1+ goals
84%
Umea FF 2+ goals
54%
Umea FF 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Kiruna FF (draw refunded)
29%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiruna FF at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiruna FF attack 1.29 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Kiruna FF defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kiruna FF scores more
22%
level
23%
Umea FF scores more
55%

Umea FF at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Kiruna FF 0–1 Umea FF

Umea FF beat Kiruna FF 1-0 in Division 2 - Norrland on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Lombia IP in Kiruna.