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Kirkkonummi vs SaPa — Suomen Cup 2018

Kirkkonummi
Kirkkonummi
FT
3 – 0
SaPa
SaPa
2/28/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundUrheilupuiston tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kirkkonummi29%
×Draw19%
SaPa51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kirkkonummi
1.88
SaPa
2.50

SaPa creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kirkkonummi
1.00
SaPa
3.00

allows per match

Kirkkonummi
2.00
SaPa
2.75

finishing

Kirkkonummi+0.00on par
SaPa+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirkkonummi ↓

SaPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Kirkkonummi or draw
49%
Kirkkonummi or SaPa
81%
Draw or SaPa
71%

Winning margin

Kirkkonummi wins by 2+
15%
SaPa wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kirkkonummi 1+ goals
85%
Kirkkonummi 2+ goals
56%
Kirkkonummi 3+ goals
29%
SaPa 1+ goals
92%
SaPa 2+ goals
71%
SaPa 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Kirkkonummi (draw refunded)
36%
SaPa (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirkkonummi at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

SaPa away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirkkonummi attack 1.00 + SaPa defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

SaPa attack 3.00 + Kirkkonummi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kirkkonummi scores more
29%
level
19%
SaPa scores more
51%

SaPa at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SaPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kirkkonummi vs SaPa

Kirkkonummi beat SaPa 3-0 in Suomen Cup on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Urheilupuiston tekonurmi in Kirkkonummi.