Kirchheimer SC 1–4 Schwaben Augsburg

Kirchheimer SC

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Schwaben Augsburg

9/15/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 11Sportanlage Kirchheim Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kirchheimer SC23%

×Draw20%

Schwaben Augsburg58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kirchheimer SCExpected goals in this matchSchwaben Augsburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

2.35

Kirchheimer SC

1.43

Schwaben Augsburg

2.35

Schwaben Augsburg creates 64% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.53

creates per match

1.65

3.06

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Kirchheimer SC

1.53

Schwaben Augsburg

1.65

allows per match

Kirchheimer SC

3.06

Schwaben Augsburg

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Schwaben Augsburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchheimer SC ↓

Schwaben Augsburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Kirchheimer SC or draw

42%

Kirchheimer SC or Schwaben Augsburg

80%

Draw or Schwaben Augsburg

77%

Winning margin

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+

10%

Schwaben Augsburg wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals

76%

Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals

42%

Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals

17%

Schwaben Augsburg 1+ goals

90%

Schwaben Augsburg 2+ goals

68%

Schwaben Augsburg 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)

28%

Schwaben Augsburg (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchheimer SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

Schwaben Augsburg away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchheimer SC attack 1.53 + Schwaben Augsburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.43

Schwaben Augsburg attack 1.65 + Kirchheimer SC defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kirchheimer SC scores more

23%

level

20%

Schwaben Augsburg scores more

58%

Schwaben Augsburg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Schwaben Augsburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff