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Kirchheimer SC vs Nordlingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
FT
3 – 7
HT: 1 – 5
Nordlingen
Nordlingen
3/9/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 24Sportanlage Kirchheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kirchheimer SC28%
×Draw19%
Nordlingen53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kirchheimer SC
1.78
Nordlingen
2.50

Nordlingen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kirchheimer SC
1.53
Nordlingen
1.95

allows per match

Kirchheimer SC
3.06
Nordlingen
2.03

finishing

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par
Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchheimer SC ↓

Nordlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Kirchheimer SC or draw
47%
Kirchheimer SC or Nordlingen
81%
Draw or Nordlingen
72%

Winning margin

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
13%
Nordlingen wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
83%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
53%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
26%
Nordlingen 1+ goals
92%
Nordlingen 2+ goals
71%
Nordlingen 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
34%
Nordlingen (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchheimer SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchheimer SC attack 1.53 + Nordlingen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.78

Nordlingen attack 1.95 + Kirchheimer SC defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kirchheimer SC scores more
28%
level
19%
Nordlingen scores more
53%

Nordlingen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nordlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kirchheimer SC vs Nordlingen

Nordlingen beat Kirchheimer SC 7-3 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportanlage Kirchheim Kunstrasen in Kirchheim bei München.