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Kirchheimer SC vs Erlbach — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Kirchheimer SC
Kirchheimer SC
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Erlbach
Erlbach
9/29/2023Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 13Sportanlage Kirchheim Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kirchheimer SC24%
×Draw21%
Erlbach54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kirchheimer SC
1.34
Erlbach
2.09

Erlbach creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kirchheimer SC
1.53
Erlbach
1.12

allows per match

Kirchheimer SC
3.06
Erlbach
1.15

finishing

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par
Erlbach+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchheimer SC ↓

Erlbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kirchheimer SC or draw
46%
Kirchheimer SC or Erlbach
79%
Draw or Erlbach
76%

Winning margin

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+
10%
Erlbach wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals
74%
Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals
39%
Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals
15%
Erlbach 1+ goals
88%
Erlbach 2+ goals
62%
Erlbach 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)
31%
Erlbach (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchheimer SC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

Erlbach away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchheimer SC attack 1.53 + Erlbach defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Erlbach attack 1.12 + Kirchheimer SC defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kirchheimer SC scores more
24%
level
21%
Erlbach scores more
54%

Erlbach at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Erlbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Kirchheimer SC 0–4 Erlbach

Erlbach beat Kirchheimer SC 4-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on September 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sportanlage Kirchheim Platz 1 in Kirchheim bei München.