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Kirchbichl vs Zirl — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
FT
0 – 1
Zirl
Zirl
9/11/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 9SVK-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kirchbichl63%
×Draw19%
Zirl19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kirchbichl
2.44
Zirl
1.27

Kirchbichl creates 92% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kirchbichl
1.73
Zirl
0.70

allows per match

Kirchbichl
1.84
Zirl
3.15

finishing

Kirchbichl+0.00on par
Zirl+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchbichl ↓

Zirl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kirchbichl or draw
81%
Kirchbichl or Zirl
81%
Draw or Zirl
37%

Winning margin

Kirchbichl wins by 2+
41%
Zirl wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kirchbichl 1+ goals
91%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
70%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
43%
Zirl 1+ goals
72%
Zirl 2+ goals
36%
Zirl 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
77%
Zirl (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchbichl at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Zirl away — creates 0.70, concedes 3.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchbichl attack 1.73 + Zirl defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.44

Zirl attack 0.70 + Kirchbichl defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kirchbichl scores more
63%
level
19%
Zirl scores more
19%

Kirchbichl at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kirchbichl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kirchbichl vs Zirl

Zirl beat Kirchbichl 1-0 in Landesliga - Tirol on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at SVK-Arena in Kirchbichl.