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Kirchbichl vs Union Innsbruck — Landesliga - Tirol 2019

Kirchbichl
Kirchbichl
CANC
00:00
Union Innsbruck
Union Innsbruck
3/27/2021Landesliga - TirolLandesliga - Tirol · Tirol - 18SVK-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kirchbichl53%
×Draw20%
Union Innsbruck27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kirchbichl
2.35
Union Innsbruck
1.65

Kirchbichl creates 42% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kirchbichl
1.73
Union Innsbruck
1.45

allows per match

Kirchbichl
1.84
Union Innsbruck
2.98

finishing

Kirchbichl+0.00on par
Union Innsbruck+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchbichl ↓

Union Innsbruck →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Kirchbichl or draw
73%
Kirchbichl or Union Innsbruck
80%
Draw or Union Innsbruck
47%

Winning margin

Kirchbichl wins by 2+
33%
Union Innsbruck wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kirchbichl 1+ goals
90%
Kirchbichl 2+ goals
68%
Kirchbichl 3+ goals
41%
Union Innsbruck 1+ goals
81%
Union Innsbruck 2+ goals
49%
Union Innsbruck 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kirchbichl (draw refunded)
66%
Union Innsbruck (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchbichl at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.84 · 45 matches

Union Innsbruck away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.98 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchbichl attack 1.73 + Union Innsbruck defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 2.35

Union Innsbruck attack 1.45 + Kirchbichl defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kirchbichl scores more
53%
level
20%
Union Innsbruck scores more
27%

Kirchbichl at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kirchbichl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kirchbichl vs Union Innsbruck — Match Preview

Kirchbichl face Union Innsbruck on March 27, 2021 in this Landesliga - Tirol fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kirchbichl host Union Innsbruck at SVK-Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.