Kirchanschöring 1–0 Kirchheimer SC: Result & Stats

Kirchanschöring

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kirchheimer SC

10/3/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 14Stadion Alte Mühle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kirchanschöring63%

×Draw21%

Kirchheimer SC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KirchanschöringExpected goals in this matchKirchheimer SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.91

Kirchanschöring

2.01

Kirchheimer SC

0.91

Kirchanschöring creates 121% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

0.71

1.11

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Kirchanschöring

1.67

Kirchheimer SC

0.71

allows per match

Kirchanschöring

1.11

Kirchheimer SC

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchanschöring+0.00on par

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchanschöring ↓

Kirchheimer SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kirchanschöring or draw

84%

Kirchanschöring or Kirchheimer SC

79%

Draw or Kirchheimer SC

37%

Winning margin

Kirchanschöring wins by 2+

38%

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kirchanschöring 1+ goals

87%

Kirchanschöring 2+ goals

59%

Kirchanschöring 3+ goals

32%

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals

60%

Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals

23%

Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kirchanschöring (draw refunded)

79%

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchanschöring at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchanschöring attack 1.67 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.01

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Kirchanschöring defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kirchanschöring scores more

63%

level

21%

Kirchheimer SC scores more

16%

Kirchanschöring at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kirchanschöring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff