Kirchanschöring 3–2 Grünwald: Result & Stats

Kirchanschöring

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Grünwald

4/17/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 30Stadion Alte Mühle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kirchanschöring62%

×Draw19%

Grünwald19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KirchanschöringExpected goals in this matchGrünwald

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.18

Kirchanschöring

2.30

Grünwald

1.18

Kirchanschöring creates 95% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

1.67

creates per match

1.25

1.11

allows per match

2.94

creates per match

Kirchanschöring

1.67

Grünwald

1.25

allows per match

Kirchanschöring

1.11

Grünwald

2.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchanschöring+0.00on par

Grünwald+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchanschöring ↓

Grünwald →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kirchanschöring or draw

81%

Kirchanschöring or Grünwald

81%

Draw or Grünwald

38%

Winning margin

Kirchanschöring wins by 2+

40%

Grünwald wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kirchanschöring 1+ goals

90%

Kirchanschöring 2+ goals

67%

Kirchanschöring 3+ goals

40%

Grünwald 1+ goals

69%

Grünwald 2+ goals

33%

Grünwald 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kirchanschöring (draw refunded)

77%

Grünwald (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchanschöring at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Grünwald away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchanschöring attack 1.67 + Grünwald defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.30

Grünwald attack 1.25 + Kirchanschöring defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kirchanschöring scores more

62%

level

19%

Grünwald scores more

19%

Kirchanschöring at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kirchanschöring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff