Kirchanschöring 0–2 Erlbach: Result & Stats

Kirchanschöring

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erlbach

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 19Stadion Alte Mühle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kirchanschöring44%

×Draw26%

Erlbach30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KirchanschöringExpected goals in this matchErlbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.12

Kirchanschöring

1.41

Erlbach

1.12

Kirchanschöring creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

1.67

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Kirchanschöring

1.67

Erlbach

1.12

allows per match

Kirchanschöring

1.11

Erlbach

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchanschöring+0.00on par

Erlbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchanschöring ↓

Erlbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kirchanschöring or draw

70%

Kirchanschöring or Erlbach

74%

Draw or Erlbach

56%

Winning margin

Kirchanschöring wins by 2+

21%

Erlbach wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kirchanschöring 1+ goals

76%

Kirchanschöring 2+ goals

41%

Kirchanschöring 3+ goals

17%

Erlbach 1+ goals

67%

Erlbach 2+ goals

31%

Erlbach 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kirchanschöring (draw refunded)

59%

Erlbach (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchanschöring at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Erlbach away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchanschöring attack 1.67 + Erlbach defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Erlbach attack 1.12 + Kirchanschöring defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kirchanschöring scores more

44%

level

26%

Erlbach scores more

30%

Kirchanschöring at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kirchanschöring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff