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Kingston City vs Sunshine Georgies — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sunshine Georgies
Sunshine Georgies
6/9/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 17The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kingston City31%
×Draw22%
Sunshine Georgies47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.56
Sunshine Georgies
1.97

Sunshine Georgies creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Sunshine Georgies
1.85

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Sunshine Georgies
1.50

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Sunshine Georgies+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Sunshine Georgies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
53%
Kingston City or Sunshine Georgies
78%
Draw or Sunshine Georgies
69%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
14%
Sunshine Georgies wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
79%
Kingston City 2+ goals
46%
Kingston City 3+ goals
21%
Sunshine Georgies 1+ goals
86%
Sunshine Georgies 2+ goals
58%
Sunshine Georgies 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
39%
Sunshine Georgies (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Sunshine Georgies away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Sunshine Georgies defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Sunshine Georgies attack 1.85 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kingston City scores more
31%
level
22%
Sunshine Georgies scores more
47%

Sunshine Georgies at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sunshine Georgies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Sunshine Georgies

Sunshine Georgies beat Kingston City 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 9, 2025.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.