Kingston City 1–2 Port Melbourne: Result & Stats

Kingston City

FT

1 – 2

Port Melbourne

V. Cesnik 84'

Y. Konagaya 48'

5/27/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 14The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kingston City33%

×Draw23%

Port Melbourne44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingston CityExpected goals in this matchPort Melbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.71

Kingston City

1.44

Port Melbourne

1.71

Port Melbourne creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

1.08

creates per match

1.50

1.92

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Kingston City

1.08

Port Melbourne

1.50

allows per match

Kingston City

1.92

Port Melbourne

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par

Port Melbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Port Melbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw

56%

Kingston City or Port Melbourne

77%

Draw or Port Melbourne

67%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+

15%

Port Melbourne wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals

76%

Kingston City 2+ goals

42%

Kingston City 3+ goals

18%

Port Melbourne 1+ goals

82%

Port Melbourne 2+ goals

51%

Port Melbourne 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)

42%

Port Melbourne (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Port Melbourne away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.79 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.08 + Port Melbourne defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.44

Port Melbourne attack 1.50 + Kingston City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kingston City scores more

33%

level

23%

Port Melbourne scores more

44%

Port Melbourne at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Port Melbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

A. Theo

48'

Y. Konagaya

84'

V. Cesnik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff