Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kingston City vs Pascoe Vale — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
0 – 2
Pascoe Vale
Pascoe Vale
7/18/2022Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 18The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Kingston City33%
×Draw22%
Pascoe Vale45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.60
Pascoe Vale
1.92

Pascoe Vale creates 20% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 31 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Pascoe Vale
1.74

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Pascoe Vale
1.58

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Pascoe Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
55%
Kingston City or Pascoe Vale
78%
Draw or Pascoe Vale
67%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
16%
Pascoe Vale wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
80%
Kingston City 2+ goals
47%
Kingston City 3+ goals
22%
Pascoe Vale 1+ goals
85%
Pascoe Vale 2+ goals
57%
Pascoe Vale 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
42%
Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.58 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pascoe Vale attack 1.74 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kingston City scores more
33%
level
22%
Pascoe Vale scores more
45%

Pascoe Vale at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pascoe Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Pascoe Vale

Pascoe Vale beat Kingston City 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on July 18, 2022.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.