Kingston City 0–2 Pascoe Vale: Result & Stats

Kingston City

FT

0 – 2

Pascoe Vale

7/8/2019

Victoria NPL · Round 20The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kingston City39%

×Draw25%

Pascoe Vale36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingston CityExpected goals in this matchPascoe Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.39

Kingston City

1.47

Pascoe Vale

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.08

creates per match

0.85

1.92

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kingston City

1.08

Pascoe Vale

0.85

allows per match

Kingston City

1.92

Pascoe Vale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par

Pascoe Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Pascoe Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw

64%

Kingston City or Pascoe Vale

75%

Draw or Pascoe Vale

61%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+

19%

Pascoe Vale wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals

77%

Kingston City 2+ goals

43%

Kingston City 3+ goals

18%

Pascoe Vale 1+ goals

75%

Pascoe Vale 2+ goals

40%

Pascoe Vale 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)

52%

Pascoe Vale (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Pascoe Vale away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.08 + Pascoe Vale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47

Pascoe Vale attack 0.85 + Kingston City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kingston City scores more

39%

level

25%

Pascoe Vale scores more

36%

Kingston City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kingston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff