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Kingston City vs Moreland Zebras — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
CANC
05:00
Moreland Zebras
Moreland Zebras
9/4/2021Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 22Grange Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Kingston City33%
×Draw23%
Moreland Zebras44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.51
Moreland Zebras
1.76

Moreland Zebras creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 32 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Moreland Zebras
1.44

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Moreland Zebras
1.41

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Moreland Zebras+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Moreland Zebras →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
56%
Kingston City or Moreland Zebras
77%
Draw or Moreland Zebras
67%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
16%
Moreland Zebras wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
78%
Kingston City 2+ goals
44%
Kingston City 3+ goals
19%
Moreland Zebras 1+ goals
83%
Moreland Zebras 2+ goals
52%
Moreland Zebras 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
43%
Moreland Zebras (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Moreland Zebras away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Moreland Zebras defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.51

Moreland Zebras attack 1.44 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kingston City scores more
33%
level
23%
Moreland Zebras scores more
44%

Moreland Zebras at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Moreland Zebras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kingston City face Moreland Zebras (Victoria NPL 2)

Victoria NPL 2 returns with Kingston City hosting Moreland Zebras. Match starts September 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kingston City host Moreland Zebras at Grange Reserve - Pitch 1.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.