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Kingston City vs Melbourne Victory II — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
1 – 2
Melbourne Victory II
Melbourne Victory II
5/6/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 12The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kingston City31%
×Draw20%
Melbourne Victory II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.77
Melbourne Victory II
2.25

Melbourne Victory II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Melbourne Victory II
2.42

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Melbourne Victory II
1.92

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory II+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Melbourne Victory II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
51%
Kingston City or Melbourne Victory II
80%
Draw or Melbourne Victory II
69%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
15%
Melbourne Victory II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
83%
Kingston City 2+ goals
53%
Kingston City 3+ goals
26%
Melbourne Victory II 1+ goals
89%
Melbourne Victory II 2+ goals
65%
Melbourne Victory II 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
39%
Melbourne Victory II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Melbourne Victory II away — creates 2.42, concedes 1.92 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Melbourne Victory II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Melbourne Victory II attack 2.42 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kingston City scores more
31%
level
20%
Melbourne Victory II scores more
49%

Melbourne Victory II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Melbourne Victory II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Kingston City 1–2 Melbourne Victory II

Melbourne Victory II beat Kingston City 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 6, 2024.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.