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Kingston City vs Melbourne Knights — Victoria NPL 2026

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
2 – 0
Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
A. Theo 79'
E. Yalaz 13'
8/2/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 24The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kingston City36%
×Draw24%
Melbourne Knights40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.52
Melbourne Knights
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 78 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.08
Melbourne Knights
1.29

allows per match

Kingston City
1.92
Melbourne Knights
1.96

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Melbourne Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
60%
Kingston City or Melbourne Knights
76%
Draw or Melbourne Knights
64%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
17%
Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
78%
Kingston City 2+ goals
45%
Kingston City 3+ goals
20%
Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
80%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
47%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
48%
Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.08 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Kingston City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kingston City scores more
36%
level
24%
Melbourne Knights scores more
40%

Melbourne Knights at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Melbourne Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Yalaz
79'
A. Theo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Melbourne Knights

Kingston City beat Melbourne Knights 2-0 in Victoria NPL on August 2, 2019.

Goals: E. Yalaz (13'), A. Theo (79').

The match was played at The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing).