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Kingston City vs Keilor Park — Victoria Premier League 2 2026

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Keilor Park
Keilor Park
2/20/2026Victoria Premier League 2Victoria Premier League 2 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kingston City39%
×Draw24%
Keilor Park37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.60
Keilor Park
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.09
Keilor Park
1.20

allows per match

Kingston City
1.91
Keilor Park
2.10

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Keilor Park+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Keilor Park →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
63%
Kingston City or Keilor Park
76%
Draw or Keilor Park
61%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
19%
Keilor Park wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
80%
Kingston City 2+ goals
47%
Kingston City 3+ goals
22%
Keilor Park 1+ goals
79%
Keilor Park 2+ goals
46%
Keilor Park 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
51%
Keilor Park (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Keilor Park away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.09 + Keilor Park defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.60

Keilor Park attack 1.20 + Kingston City defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kingston City scores more
39%
level
24%
Keilor Park scores more
37%

Kingston City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kingston City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Keilor Park

Kingston City beat Keilor Park 2-1 in Victoria Premier League 2 on February 20, 2026.