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Kingston City vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
1 – 3
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
8/19/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 25The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kingston City32%
×Draw24%
Dandenong City44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.36
Dandenong City
1.63

Dandenong City creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 76 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.08
Dandenong City
1.34

allows per match

Kingston City
1.92
Dandenong City
1.64

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
56%
Kingston City or Dandenong City
76%
Draw or Dandenong City
68%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
14%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
74%
Kingston City 2+ goals
39%
Kingston City 3+ goals
16%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
80%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
48%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
42%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.08 + Dandenong City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.36

Dandenong City attack 1.34 + Kingston City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kingston City scores more
32%
level
24%
Dandenong City scores more
44%

Dandenong City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dandenong City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Kingston City 1–3 Dandenong City

Dandenong City beat Kingston City 3-1 in Victoria NPL on August 19, 2019.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing).