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Kingston City vs Bulleen Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bulleen Lions
Bulleen Lions
3/10/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 5The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Kingston City38%
×Draw23%
Bulleen Lions39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.66
Bulleen Lions
1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Bulleen Lions
1.24

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Bulleen Lions
1.70

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Bulleen Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Bulleen Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
61%
Kingston City or Bulleen Lions
77%
Draw or Bulleen Lions
62%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
19%
Bulleen Lions wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
81%
Kingston City 2+ goals
49%
Kingston City 3+ goals
23%
Bulleen Lions 1+ goals
81%
Bulleen Lions 2+ goals
50%
Bulleen Lions 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
50%
Bulleen Lions (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Bulleen Lions away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.70 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Bulleen Lions defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bulleen Lions attack 1.24 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kingston City scores more
38%
level
23%
Bulleen Lions scores more
39%

Bulleen Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bulleen Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Kingston City 2–0 Bulleen Lions

Kingston City beat Bulleen Lions 2-0 in Victoria NPL 2 on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.