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Kingston City vs Brunswick City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Brunswick City
Brunswick City
6/24/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 19The Grange Reserve [Clayton South]

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Kingston City38%
×Draw22%
Brunswick City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.73
Brunswick City
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 67 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.61
Brunswick City
1.48

allows per match

Kingston City
2.09
Brunswick City
1.84

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Brunswick City+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Brunswick City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
60%
Kingston City or Brunswick City
78%
Draw or Brunswick City
62%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
19%
Brunswick City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
82%
Kingston City 2+ goals
52%
Kingston City 3+ goals
25%
Brunswick City 1+ goals
83%
Brunswick City 2+ goals
53%
Brunswick City 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
49%
Brunswick City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.61, concedes 2.09 · 57 matches

Brunswick City away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.61 + Brunswick City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.73

Brunswick City attack 1.48 + Kingston City defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kingston City scores more
38%
level
22%
Brunswick City scores more
40%

Brunswick City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brunswick City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Brunswick City

Kingston City and Brunswick City drew 1-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve [Clayton South] in Melbourne.