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Kingston City vs Box Hill — Victoria Premier League 2 2026

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Box Hill
Box Hill
3/13/2026Victoria Premier League 2Victoria Premier League 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kingston City23%
×Draw23%
Box Hill55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.10
Box Hill
1.84

Box Hill creates 67% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.09
Box Hill
1.78

allows per match

Kingston City
1.91
Box Hill
1.11

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Box Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Box Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
45%
Kingston City or Box Hill
77%
Draw or Box Hill
77%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
8%
Box Hill wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
67%
Kingston City 2+ goals
30%
Kingston City 3+ goals
10%
Box Hill 1+ goals
84%
Box Hill 2+ goals
55%
Box Hill 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
29%
Box Hill (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

Box Hill away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.09 + Box Hill defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Box Hill attack 1.78 + Kingston City defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kingston City scores more
23%
level
23%
Box Hill scores more
55%

Box Hill at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Box Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria Premier League 2: Kingston City 0–4 Box Hill

Box Hill beat Kingston City 4-0 in Victoria Premier League 2 on March 13, 2026.