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Kingston City vs Altona Magic — Victoria NPL 2026

Kingston City
Kingston City
FT
1 – 2
Altona Magic
Altona Magic
3/23/2019Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 6The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kingston City37%
×Draw23%
Altona Magic39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kingston City
1.61
Altona Magic
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 87 away

creates per match

Kingston City
1.08
Altona Magic
1.40

allows per match

Kingston City
1.92
Altona Magic
2.14

finishing

Kingston City+0.00on par
Altona Magic+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingston City ↓

Altona Magic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kingston City or draw
61%
Kingston City or Altona Magic
77%
Draw or Altona Magic
63%

Winning margin

Kingston City wins by 2+
18%
Altona Magic wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Kingston City 1+ goals
80%
Kingston City 2+ goals
48%
Kingston City 3+ goals
22%
Altona Magic 1+ goals
81%
Altona Magic 2+ goals
49%
Altona Magic 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kingston City (draw refunded)
49%
Altona Magic (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingston City at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Altona Magic away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.14 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingston City attack 1.08 + Altona Magic defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.61

Altona Magic attack 1.40 + Kingston City defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kingston City scores more
37%
level
23%
Altona Magic scores more
39%

Altona Magic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Altona Magic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kingston City vs Altona Magic

Altona Magic beat Kingston City 2-1 in Victoria NPL on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at The Grange Reserve (Hoppers Crossing).