Kings Hammer 2–1 West Virginia Alliance

Kings Hammer

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

West Virginia Alliance

5/24/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 4CHCA Academy Stadium Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kings Hammer31%

×Draw24%

West Virginia Alliance45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kings HammerExpected goals in this matchWest Virginia Alliance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.69

Kings Hammer

1.35

West Virginia Alliance

1.69

West Virginia Alliance creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.25

creates per match

1.62

1.75

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Kings Hammer

1.25

West Virginia Alliance

1.62

allows per match

Kings Hammer

1.75

West Virginia Alliance

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kings Hammer+0.00on par

West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kings Hammer ↓

West Virginia Alliance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Kings Hammer or draw

55%

Kings Hammer or West Virginia Alliance

76%

Draw or West Virginia Alliance

69%

Winning margin

Kings Hammer wins by 2+

13%

West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kings Hammer 1+ goals

74%

Kings Hammer 2+ goals

39%

Kings Hammer 3+ goals

15%

West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals

82%

West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals

50%

West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)

40%

West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kings Hammer at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

West Virginia Alliance away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kings Hammer attack 1.25 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

West Virginia Alliance attack 1.62 + Kings Hammer defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kings Hammer scores more

31%

level

24%

West Virginia Alliance scores more

45%

West Virginia Alliance at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "West Virginia Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff