Kings Hammer 1–3 Kings Hammer Columbus

Kings Hammer

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Kings Hammer Columbus

7/9/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 17CHCA Academy Stadium Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kings Hammer41%

×Draw25%

Kings Hammer Columbus34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kings HammerExpected goals in this matchKings Hammer Columbus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.33

Kings Hammer

1.50

Kings Hammer Columbus

1.33

Kings Hammer creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

1.25

creates per match

0.92

1.75

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Kings Hammer

1.25

Kings Hammer Columbus

0.92

allows per match

Kings Hammer

1.75

Kings Hammer Columbus

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Kings Hammer Columbus+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kings Hammer ↓

Kings Hammer Columbus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kings Hammer or draw

66%

Kings Hammer or Kings Hammer Columbus

75%

Draw or Kings Hammer Columbus

59%

Winning margin

Kings Hammer wins by 2+

20%

Kings Hammer Columbus wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Kings Hammer 1+ goals

78%

Kings Hammer 2+ goals

44%

Kings Hammer 3+ goals

19%

Kings Hammer Columbus 1+ goals

74%

Kings Hammer Columbus 2+ goals

38%

Kings Hammer Columbus 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)

55%

Kings Hammer Columbus (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kings Hammer at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Kings Hammer Columbus away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kings Hammer attack 1.25 + Kings Hammer Columbus defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kings Hammer Columbus attack 0.92 + Kings Hammer defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kings Hammer scores more

41%

level

25%

Kings Hammer Columbus scores more

34%

Kings Hammer at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kings Hammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff