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King's Lynn Town vs Southport — League #50 2026

King's Lynn Town
King's Lynn Town
Preview
14:00
Southport
Southport
10/24/2026League #50League #50 · National League North - 13
Big match
49%
King's Lynn Town
model favours
49%24%27%

Southport score first in only 16% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

King's Lynn Town49%
×Draw24%
Southport27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King's Lynn Town
1.74
Southport
1.24

King's Lynn Town creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 34 away

creates per match

King's Lynn Town
1.83
Southport
1.15

allows per match

King's Lynn Town
1.33
Southport
1.65

finishing

King's Lynn Town+0.00on par
Southport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King's Lynn Town ↓

Southport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

King's Lynn Town or draw
73%
King's Lynn Town or Southport
76%
Draw or Southport
51%

Winning margin

King's Lynn Town wins by 2+
26%
Southport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

King's Lynn Town 1+ goals
82%
King's Lynn Town 2+ goals
52%
King's Lynn Town 3+ goals
25%
Southport 1+ goals
71%
Southport 2+ goals
35%
Southport 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

King's Lynn Town (draw refunded)
64%
Southport (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King's Lynn Town at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Southport away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King's Lynn Town attack 1.83 + Southport defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.74

Southport attack 1.15 + King's Lynn Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

King's Lynn Town scores more
49%
level
24%
Southport scores more
27%

King's Lynn Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "King's Lynn Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 74% of Southport’s matches
  • Southport win just 21% against the top half (vs 62% against the bottom)
  • 35% of Southport’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of Southport’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWLWD
Southport
LWLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

King's Lynn Town vs Southport — Match Preview

King's Lynn Town face Southport on October 24, 2026 in this League #50 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.