King Faisal 2–0 Sefwi All Stars: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sefwi All Stars

12/7/2025

Division One League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal57%

×Draw27%

Sefwi All Stars16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchSefwi All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.64

King Faisal

1.46

Sefwi All Stars

0.64

King Faisal creates 128% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.40

creates per match

0.40

0.87

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

King Faisal

1.40

Sefwi All Stars

0.40

allows per match

King Faisal

0.87

Sefwi All Stars

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Sefwi All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Sefwi All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

84%

King Faisal or Sefwi All Stars

73%

Draw or Sefwi All Stars

43%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

29%

Sefwi All Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

77%

King Faisal 2+ goals

43%

King Faisal 3+ goals

18%

Sefwi All Stars 1+ goals

47%

Sefwi All Stars 2+ goals

14%

Sefwi All Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

78%

Sefwi All Stars (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Sefwi All Stars away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Sefwi All Stars defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sefwi All Stars attack 0.40 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

King Faisal scores more

57%

level

27%

Sefwi All Stars scores more

16%

King Faisal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff