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King Faisal vs PAC Academy — Division One League 2025

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PAC Academy
PAC Academy
10/12/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal48%
×Draw29%
PAC Academy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.30
PAC Academy
0.80

King Faisal creates 63% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.40
PAC Academy
0.73

allows per match

King Faisal
0.87
PAC Academy
1.20

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
PAC Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

PAC Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
77%
King Faisal or PAC Academy
71%
Draw or PAC Academy
52%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
23%
PAC Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
73%
King Faisal 2+ goals
37%
King Faisal 3+ goals
14%
PAC Academy 1+ goals
55%
PAC Academy 2+ goals
19%
PAC Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
68%
PAC Academy (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

PAC Academy away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + PAC Academy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

PAC Academy attack 0.73 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

King Faisal scores more
48%
level
29%
PAC Academy scores more
23%

King Faisal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: King Faisal 1–1 PAC Academy

King Faisal and PAC Academy drew 1-1 in Division One League on October 12, 2025.