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King Faisal vs Karela — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Karela
Karela
B. Bature 74'
A. Latif 60'
S. Kusi 43'
I. Nketiah 76'
E. Boakye Owusu 42'
3/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

King Faisal47%
×Draw30%
Karela23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.23
Karela
0.77

King Faisal creates 60% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 109 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.15
Karela
0.61

allows per match

King Faisal
0.93
Karela
1.31

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
77%
King Faisal or Karela
70%
Draw or Karela
53%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
21%
Karela wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
71%
King Faisal 2+ goals
35%
King Faisal 3+ goals
13%
Karela 1+ goals
54%
Karela 2+ goals
18%
Karela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
67%
Karela (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Karela attack 0.61 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

King Faisal scores more
47%
level
30%
Karela scores more
23%

King Faisal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. Ocran
42'
E. Boakye Owusu
43'
S. Kusi
60'
A. Latif
64'
W. Dankyi← Y. Baba
70'
H. Gyimah← H. Gyimah
70'
S. Boakye← S. Boakye
71'
74'
B. Bature
76'
I. Nketiah
81'
90+3'
M. Abdul Kadir← M. Abdul Kadir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: King Faisal 3–2 Karela

King Faisal beat Karela 3-2 in Premier League on March 29, 2023.

Goals: E. Boakye Owusu (42'), S. Kusi (43'), A. Latif (60'), B. Bature (74'), I. Nketiah (76').

The match was played at Dr. Kwame Kyei Sports Complex in Abrankese.